A new study has found biometric “physical” identity credentials will begin to be replaced by next generation “virtual” credentials securely stored in mobile devices and accessed via biometric authentication. And, by 2030, today’s standard identity credentials will be obsolete.
Acuity Market Intelligence estimates that by 2022, annual production of smart, biometric “physical” identity credentials – including ePassports, National Identity Cards, and Driver’s Licenses – will peak at more than one billion a year and then give way to “virtual” credentials.
Several US states have begun evaluating smartphone based driver’s licenses and similar initiatives are underway in Australia where “passport free” travel is also being considered. Austria has a virtual National ID that can be loaded onto smart cards or mobile devices, and India’s UIDAI announced a move to Aadhaar-enabled smartphones.
Acuity says we are in the early stages of developing global standards for digital identity. Smart virtual credentials enabled by biometrics are an important step. Biometrics on smart devices will be multi-modal, used for active and passive authentication, and stored both locally and in secure clouds depending on the application and level of risk.
Biometric-based virtual credentials will also eliminate the need for separate payment mechanisms. By 2025, biometric authentication will be standard for trillions of annual payments and information transactions and by 2030 physical payment mechanisms such as debit and credit cards will become inconvenient and increasingly not accepted. Secure, anonymous biometric authentication will replace multiple forms of identification and payment mechanisms.
Acuity offers extensive research, insight, and analysis on biometrics, mobility, identity, and secure credentials.
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