First-quarter U.S. card PDV (purchase dollar volume) for the U.S. market rose 8.1% year-on-year (YOY) for the Major 4 U.S.-based networks. The Major 4 U.S. payment card networks: Visa [V]; Mastercard [MA]; American Express [AXP]; and Discover (DFS) collectively posted $1544.5 billion in 1Q/19 U.S. payment card PDV, compared to a revised $1623.1 billion for 4Q/18, and $1428.9 billion for 1Q/18, according to figures collected by CardData.
Payment cards include credit cards, charge cards, debit cards and prepaid cards.
The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the Major 4 networks is now 9.99% for U.S. payment card PDV. By comparison Visa’s U.S. PDV CAGR is 10.31%. Mastercard follows with an 8.10% U.S. PDV CAGR, a Discover U.S. PDV CAGR of 5.66% and a 3.75% U.S. PDV CAGR for American Express, following the AXP sell-off of major cobranded programs in 2016, according to Robert McKinley, Senior Analyst for CardFlash, CardTrak and CardData.
The Major 4 on a YOY basis, grew 8.1% for 1Q/19, compared to 10.9% for 1Q/18, 6.5% for 1Q/17 and 9.0% for 1Q/16, according to analysis by RAM Research.
Major 4 Peer Group U.S. PDV First-Quarter
Visa, up 7.9% YOY, reported first-quarter U.S. payment card PDV of $930 billion, compared to a revised $979 billion for 4Q/18 and $862 billion for 1Q/18. In the first-quarter 2015 Visa U.S. payment card PDV was $628 billion.
Mastercard posted an 9.2% YOY gain with first-quarter U.S. payment card PDV of $392 billion, compared to $408 billion for 4Q/18 and $359 billion for 1Q/18. In the first-quarter 2015 Mastercard U.S. payment card PDV was $287 billion.
American Express posted a 7.1% YOY gain with first-quarter estimated U.S. payment card PDV of $189.6 billion, compared to an estimated $198.9 billion for 4Q/18 and $177.0 billion for 1Q/18. In the first-quarter 2015 American Express U.S. payment card PDV was $164.1 billion. American Express publicly discloses gross dollar volume (GDV). PDV is estimated at 97% of GDV.
Discover reported an 6.5% YOY gain with first-quarter U.S. payment card PDV of $32.9 billion, compared to $37.2 billion for 4Q/18 and $30.9 billion for 1Q/18. In the first-quarter 2016 Discover U.S. payment card PDV was $26.4 billion.
Purchase Dollar Volume Outlook 2019
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in April after ticking down in March. Consumers’ stating business conditions are “good” increased from 34.7% to 37.3%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” decreased from 12.4% to 11.7%. Consumers’ stating jobs are “plentiful” increased from 42.5% to 46.8%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 14.3% to 13.2%.
Consumers’ short-term outlook also improved in April. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will be better six months from now increased from 17.2% to 19.9%. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 16.8% to 17.2%, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased from 14.3% to 13.2%.
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U.S. Payment Card (Credit, Charge, Debit & Prepaid) Purchase Card Volume
(Visa + Mastercard + American Express + Discover)
1Q/15: $1109 billion
1Q/16: $1209 billion
1Q/17: $1288 billion
1Q/18: $1428.9 billion
1Q/19: $1544.5 billion
Visa U.S. Payment Card Purchase Dollar Volume
1Q/15: $628 billion
1Q/16: $694 billion
1Q/17: $775 billion
1Q/18: $862 billion
1Q/19: $930 billion
Mastercard U.S. Payment Card Purchase Dollar Volume
1Q/15: $287 billion
1Q/16: $316 billion
1Q/17: $324 billion
1Q/18: $359 billion
1Q/19: $392 billion
American Express U.S. Payment Card Purchase Dollar Volume
1Q/15: e$164.1 billion
1Q/16: e$171.1 billion
1Q/17: e$160.4 billion
1Q/18: e$177.0 billion
1Q/19: e$189.6 billion
*American Express publicly discloses GDV; PDV is estimated at 97% of GDV based on historical and internal guidance.
Discover U.S. Payment Card Purchase Dollar Volume
1Q/15: $26.4 billion
1Q/16: $27.6 billion
1Q/17: $29.1 billion
1Q/18: $30.9 billion
1Q/19: $32.9 billion