Global purchase transactions (PTX) for Visa and MasterCard debit and credit cards increased 13.3% year-on-year (YOY) in the first-quarter (1Q/19). The PTX YOY growth rate has been steadily expanding each quarter. One-year ago the PTX YOY growth rate for the first-quarter was 13.9%. In 1Q/17, the PTX YOY growth rate soared 28.3%, skewed by the merger of Visa and Visa Europe. In 2015, first-quarter PTX grew 15.4%.
While the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 17.59% since 1Q/15, it is skewed, however, by the aforementioned inclusion of Visa Europe data in mid-2016. Excluding Visa Europe, the CAGR is 8.74%, according to analysis by RAM Research.
The two networks combined, processed 66.0 billion purchase transactions in 1Q/19 compared to 69.1 billion for the third quarter and 58.3 billion one-year ago, according to figures collected by CardData.
Beyond the inclusion of Visa Europe in 2016, global PTX growth over the past two years has been driven by Mastercard credit and debit products, outpacing Visa YOY by more than 700 basis points (bps).
The Central Europe Middle East Africa (CEMEA) region, followed by Asia-Pacific (AP) have been the key drivers for Visa’s current PTX growth. The Europe and Latin America Caribbean (LAC) regions have been the powerhouses for Mastercard’s recent global purchase transactions growth.
Visa Global Payment Card PTX
Visa posted a 10.8% YOY gain in PTX to 42.2 billion for 1Q/19, compared to a revised 44.4 billion for 4Q/18, and a revised 38.1 billion for 1Q/18. One-year ago Visa global purchase transactions increased 11.9% YOY, compared to 41.7% in 2016, and 14.1% for 2015.
Visa’s Asia-Pacific (AP) region PTX increased 11.8% YOY to 7.0 billion in 1Q/19; Canada grew 11.6% YOY to 0.9 billion; Central Europe Middle East Africa (CEMEA) exploded 21.2% YOY to 4.5 billion; Latin America Caribbean (LAC) was up 11.7% YOY to 3.4 billion; and Europe rose 8.0% YOY to 9.4 billion. Visa U.S. reported a 6.4% YOY gain to 17.0 billion for 1Q/19 PTX.
Mastercard Payment Card PTX
Mastercard posted an 18.0% YOY gain in PTX to 23.8 billion for 1Q/19, compared to a revised 24.7 billion for 4Q/18, and a revised 20.2 billion for 1Q/18. One-year ago Mastercard global purchase transactions also increased 18.0% YOY, compared to first-quarter 8.1% YOY for 2016 and 17.5% YOY in 2015.
Mastercard’s Asia-Pacific Middle East Africa (APMEA) region PTX grew 16.5% YOY to 5.5 billion in 1Q/19; Canada grew 10.3% YOY to 0.6 billion; Europe exploded 28.5% YOY to 8.3 billion; and Latin America Caribbean (LAC) was up 20.0% YOY to 2.5 billion. Mastercard U.S. reported an 8.4% YOY gain to 6.9 billion for 1Q/19 PTX.
Global PTX Outlook
While there is some wavering in the health of Asian economies and rising concerns over global tariffs and higher interest rates, the outlook for consumer spending remains sideways for 2019.
Consumer confidence is a mixed bag around the globe for the start of 2019. Consumer confidence in the U.S. is “rebounding,” while the U.K. is “weak,” “rising” in Australia, “strong” in Canada, down to the “lowest level in more than two years” in Japan, and “pessimistic” in India.
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Visa + MasterCard Global Purchase Transactions
1Q/15: 34,520 million
1Q/16: 39,842 million
1Q/17: 51,129 million
1Q/18: 58,254 million
1Q/19: 66,005 million
Visa Global Purchase Transactions
1Q/15: 21,044 million
1Q/16: 24,010 million
1Q/17: 34,013 million
1Q/18: 38,062 million
1Q/19: 42,184 million
MasterCard Global Purchase Transactions
1Q/15: 13,476 million
1Q/16: 15,832 million
1Q/17: 17,116 million
1Q/18: 20,192 million
1Q/19: 23,821 million
Note: All Current and Prior Figures Updated 05/08/19