Fourth-Quarter Card GDV U.S. Volume Downshifts 110 bps

Fourth-quarter card GDV (gross dollar volume) for credit/charge card products, among the Major 4 payment networks (Visa [V], Mastercard [MA], American Express [AXP], and Discover [DFS]), lost momentum, growing 7.5% year-on-year (YOY), compared to an 8.2% YOY gain for the prior quarter, and 8.6% YOY for the year ago quarter.

On an annual or YOY basis, Mastercard led the Major 4 in U.S. credit card GDV, as the only payments network posting a double-digit gain. On a CAGR basis, Visa is the only payments network posting a double-digit increase in U.S. credit card GDV, mainly due to the 2016 Citibank acquisition of American Express Costco accounts. Visa continues to hold sway in the U.S. credit card market with a 52.5% marketshare, down 10 bps (basis points) from 3Q/19, notes Senior Analyst Robert McKinley of CardFlash, Bankcenter and CardBuzz.

The Major 4 reported $1083 billion in U.S. credit card gross dollar volume (GDV) for the fourth-quarter (4Q/19), compared to a revised $1039 billion for the prior quarter, and a revised $1007 billion for 4Q/18. In the fourth-quarter of 2015 the Major 4 posted $777 billion in U.S. credit card GDV, according to figures collected by CardData and PYRPTS.

Fourth-Quarter Analysis

The Major 4 payment networks posted an 7.5% YOY increase in the fourth-quarter U.S. credit card GDV, compared to an 8.6% YOY gain for 2018, a 10.1% YOY increase for 2017, and an 8.4% YOY gain in 2016. The four-year current CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for the Major 4 credit card GDV is running at 8.66%, compared to 8.56% in the prior quarter, based on analysis by RAM Research.

Professor Cardworthy says with help from PayPal and the new Apple credit cards in 2019 Mastercard is totally kicking butt in the U.S. market, growing nearly twice the YOY gains of the other three U.S.-based payment networks. Mastercard markershare, based on U.S. credit card GDV is up 90 bps from 22.6% one-year ago to 23.5%.

Fourth-Quarter Major 4 U.S. Networks

Visa U.S. Credit Card GDV

Visa reported a 6.8% YOY gain with fourth-quarter U.S. credit card GDV of $569 billion, compared to a revised $547 billion for 3Q/19 and a revised $533 billion for 4Q/18. Visa U.S. credit card GDV grew 8.3% YOY for 4Q/18. In the fourth-quarter of 2015, Visa posted $372 billion in U.S. credit card GDV. Visa is currently growing at a CAGR of 11.21% for U.S. credit card GDV, driven primarily by the migration of American Express cobranded cards to Citibank and Visa in 2016.

Mastercard U.S. Credit Card GDV

Mastercard reported an 11.4% YOY gain with fourth-quarter U.S. credit card GDV of $254 billion, compared to a revised $245 billion for 3Q/19 and a revised $228 billion for 4Q/18. Mastercard U.S. credit card GDV grew 10.1% YOY for 4Q/18. In the fourth-quarter of 2015, Mastercard posted $181 billion in U.S. credit card GDV. Mastercard is currently growing at a CAGR of 8.84% for U.S. credit card GDV.

American Express U.S. Credit Card GDV

American Express reported a 5.9% YOY gain with fourth-quarter U.S. credit card GDV of $217 billion, compared to a revised $206 billion for 3Q/19 and a revised $205 billion for 4Q/18. American Express U.S. credit card GDV grew 8.5% YOY for 4Q/18. In the fourth-quarter of 2015, American Express posted $190 billion in U.S. credit card GDV. American Express is currently growing at a CAGR of 3.38% for U.S. credit card GDV, dampened by the migration of American Express cobranded cards to Citibank and Visa in 2016.

Discover U.S. Credit Card GDV

Discover reported a 4.9% YOY gain with fourth-quarter U.S. credit card GDV of $43 billion, compared to a revised $41 billion for 3Q/19 and a revised $41 billion for 4Q/18. Discover U.S. credit card GDV grew 5.1% YOY for 4Q/18. In the fourth-quarter of 2015, Discover posted $34 billion in U.S. credit card GDV. Discover is currently growing at a CAGR of 6.05% for U.S. credit card GDV.