Card Networks U.S. GDV Nose-Dives 24%

Credit Card Networks U.S. GDV (gross dollar volume) for second-quarter credit/charge card products, among the Major 4 payment networks (Visa [V], Mastercard [MA], American Express [AXP], and Discover [DFS]), nose-dived, declining 23.9% year-on-year (YOY), compared to an 3.1% YOY gain for the prior quarter, and 8.1% YOY for the year ago quarter.

On an annual or YOY basis, American Express led the Major 4 in U.S. credit card GDV decline, as the only payments network posting a painful YOY mid double-digit drop. On a CAGR basis, Visa is the only payments network posting the highest single-digit increase in U.S. credit card GDV, mainly due to the 2016 Citibank acquisition of American Express Costco accounts. Visa continues to hold sway in the U.S. credit card market with a 54.2% marketshare, up 150 bps (basis points) from 2Q/19 according to CardData.

The Major 4 reported $782 billion in U.S. credit card gross dollar volume (GDV) for the second-quarter (2Q/20), compared to a revised $961 billion for the prior quarter, and a revised $1028 billion for 2Q/19. In the second-quarter of 2015 the Major 4 posted $738 billion in U.S. credit card GDV.

Second-Quarter Analysis

The Major 4 payment networks posted an 23.9% YOY decrease in the second-quarter U.S. credit card GDV, compared to an 8.1% YOY gain for prior quarter of 2019, and an 3.1% YOY gain in same quarter of 2019. The four-year current CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for the Major 4 credit card GDV is running at 3.23%.

Robert McKinley, Senior Analyst of CardFlash, notes the drop-off will likely accelerate in the third-quarter as U.S. economic stimuli dries-up. The impact of the federal unemployment supplement of $600 per week cannot be understated. Despite reductions in credit card lines, increased FICO requirements for new accounts, and waiver of minimum payments and late fees, the third-quarter will be a disaster in financial services.

Card Networks Second-Quarter Gross Dollar Volume

Visa U.S. Credit Card GDV

Visa reported a 21.8% YOY decline with second-quarter U.S. credit card GDV of $424 billion, compared to a revised $507 billion for 1Q/20 and a revised $542 billion for 2Q/19. Visa U.S. credit card GDV grew 6.9% YOY for 2Q/19. In the second-quarter of 2015, Visa posted $352 billion in U.S. credit card GDV. Visa is currently growing at a CAGR of 3.57% for U.S. credit card GDV, driven primarily by the migration of American Express cobranded cards to Citibank and Visa in 2016.

Mastercard U.S. Credit Card GDV

Mastercard reported an 22.8% YOY decrease with second-quarter U.S. credit card GDV of $183 billion, compared to a revised $227 billion for 1Q/20 and a revised $237 billion for 2Q/19. Mastercard U.S. credit card GDV grew 12.3% YOY for 2Q/19. In the second-quarter of 2015, Mastercard posted $172 billion in U.S. credit card GDV. Mastercard is currently growing at a CAGR of 1.25% for U.S. credit card GDV.

American Express U.S. Credit Card GDV

American Express reported a 32.1% YOY drop-off with second-quarter U.S. credit card GDV of $142 billion, compared to a revised $190 billion for 1Q/20 and a revised $206 billion for 2Q/19. American Express U.S. credit card GDV grew 7.2% YOY for 2Q/19. In the second-quarter of 2015, American Express posted $182 billion in U.S. credit card GDV. American Express is currently declining at a CAGR of 4.84% for U.S. credit card GDV, dampened by the migration of American Express cobranded cards to Citibank and Visa in 2016.

Discover U.S. Credit Card GDV

Discover reported a 17.5% YOY decline with second-quarter U.S. credit card GDV of $33 billion, compared to a revised $37 billion for 1Q/20 and a revised $40 billion for 2Q/19. Discover U.S. credit card GDV grew 5.3% YOY for 2Q/19. In the second-quarter of 2015, Discover posted $32 billion in U.S. credit card GDV. Discover is currently growing at a CAGR of 0.62% for U.S. credit card GDV.

U.S. Major 4 U.S. Credit Card GDV

(Visa + Mastercard + American Express + Discover)

1Q/15: $666 billion
2Q/15: $738 billion
3Q/15: $748 billion
4Q/15: $777 billion
1Q/16: $725 billion
2Q/16: $792 billion
3Q/16: $805 billion
4Q/16: $842 billion
1Q/17: $793 billion
2Q/17: $869 billion
3Q/17: $873 billion
4Q/17: $927 billion
1Q/18: $871 billion
2Q/18: $951 billion
3Q/18: $960 billion
4Q/18: $1007 billion
1Q/19: $932 billion
2Q/19: $1028 billion
3Q/19: $1038 billion
4Q/19: $1082 billion
1Q/20: $961 billion
2Q/20: $782 billion

Visa U.S. Credit Card GDV

1Q/15: $316 billion
2Q/15: $352 billion
3Q/15: $359 billion
4Q/15: $372 billion
1Q/16: $349 billion
2Q/16: $390 billion
3Q/16: $424 billion
4Q/16: $444 billion
1Q/17: $418 billion
2Q/17: $460 billion
3Q/17: $463 billion
4Q/17: $492 billion
1Q/18: $460 billion
2Q/18: $507 billion
3Q/18: $513 billion
4Q/18: $533 billion
1Q/19: $488 billion
2Q/19: $542 billion
3Q/19: $547 billion
4Q/19: $568 billion
1Q/20: $507 billion
2Q/20: $424 billion

Mastercard U.S. Credit Card GDV

1Q/15: $152 billion
2Q/15: $172 billion
3Q/15: $176 billion
4Q/15: $181 billion
1Q/16: $169 billion
2Q/16: $184 billion
3Q/16: $182 billion
4Q/16: $189 billion
1Q/17: $178 billion
2Q/17: $196 billion
3Q/17: $198 billion
4Q/17: $207 billion
1Q/18: $194 billion
2Q/18: $211 billion
3Q/18: $213 billion
4Q/18: $228 billion
1Q/19: $212 billion
2Q/19: $237 billion
3Q/19: $244 billion
4Q/19: $254 billion
1Q/20: $227 billion
2Q/20: $183 billion

American Express U.S. Credit/Charge Card GDV

1Q/15: $169 billion
2Q/15: $182 billion
3Q/15: $180 billion
4Q/15: $190 billion
1Q/16: $176 billion
2Q/16: $185 billion
3Q/16: $165 billion
4Q/16: $174 billion
1Q/17: $165 billion
2Q/17: $178 billion
3Q/17: $176 billion
4Q/17: $189 billion
1Q/18: $183 billion
2Q/18: $195 billion
3Q/18: $195 billion
4Q/18: $205 billion
1Q/19: $196 billion
2Q/19: $209 billion
3Q/19: $206 billion
4Q/19: $217 billion
1Q/20: $190 billion
3Q/20: $142 billion

Discover U.S. Credit Card GDV

1Q/15: $29 billion
2Q/15: $32 billion
3Q/15: $33 billion
4Q/15: $34 billion
1Q/16: $30 billion
2Q/16: $33 billion
3Q/16: $33 billion
4Q/16: $35 billion
1Q/17: $32 billion
2Q/17: $35 billion
3Q/17: $36 billion
4Q/17: $39 billion
1Q/18: $34 billion
2Q/18: $38 billion
3Q/18: $39 billion
4Q/18: $41 billion
1Q/19: $36 billion
2Q/19: $40 billion
3Q/19: $41 billion
4Q/19: $43 billion
1Q/20: $37 billion
2Q/20: $33 billion