Q1/15 Charge-Off Forecast
Given the uptick in bank credit card delinquency in the third and fourth quarters, it is likely charge-offs will start to climb upwards as early as the first quarter and will continue to march north for the rest of 2015.
Big 4 Q4/14 Actives
U.S. bank credit card active accounts (accounts with sales activity) grew 16.8% year-on-year (Y/Y) and 13.4% quarter-to-quarter (Q-Q) in 2014. This comes despite the slight erosion in gross accounts of 1% by Chase, Bank of America and Citibank last year.
Big 4 Q4/14 U.S. P/L
Profits (after tax) among the nation’s top four bank credit card issuers declined 9.0% in the fourth quarter (Q4/14), compared to one year ago (Y/Y) and down 4.3% sequentially (Q-Q). However, after adjusting for abnormal loan loss provisions in Q4/13, profits were up an estimated 8.4% Y/Y.
Big 4 Yields
With the exception of Chase, the average yield for U.S. credit cards issued by the top four issuers, remained flat throughout 2014. However, RAM Research predicts U.S. credit card yields will decline slightly in the first quarter, despite the historical seasonality of Q1.
Big 4 Accounts Q4/14
The number of open U.S. credit card accounts among the top four issuers was essentially flat for all of 2014, rising 0.6% year-on-year (Y/Y), but declining 0.6% quarter-to-quarter (Q/Q). While the top two issuers lost ground last year, Capital One is the only issuer with real account growth.
Big 4 90+ Delinquency
The average U.S. 90+ day delinquency rate among the nation’s four largest issuers declined 12 basis points (bps) to 1.04% during 2014. The top 100 U.S. banks also posted a 13 bps decline last year to 1.08%.
BofA “Bennie Stops Growing”
CardWeb.com’s CardWatch database of more than 57,000 marketing items today features the Bank of America “Bennie Stops Growing” TV ad.
Big 4 Charge-Offs Q4/14
The average charge-off ratio among the nation’s four largest issuers declined 37 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y/Y) to 2.97% in the fourth quarter (Q4/14). The top 100 U.S. banks posted a 34 bps decline last year, also to 2.97%.
Big 4 Delinquency
The average U.S. 30+ day delinquency rate among the nation’s four largest issuers declined 25 basis points (bps) to 2.07% during 2014. The top 100 U.S. banks also posted a 25 bps decline last year to 2.16%.
Big 4 Outstandings
Aggregate U.S. bank credit card outstandings for the nation’s four largest issuers declined 1.4% year-on-year (Y/Y) in the fourth quarter. Growth has been essentially flat over the past two years.
Big 4 PDV Q4/14
U.S. bank credit card Purchase Dollar Volume (PDV) for the four biggest issuers climbed 8.4% year-on-year (Y/Y) in Q4. The growth was driven by Capital One and Chase, up 15.5% and 9.8% Y/Y, respectively.
Big 6 Outstandings Q4/14
U.S. credit card outstandings, among the Big 6 credit card issuers, rose a measly 2.3% year-on-year (Y/Y) for the fourth quarter to $486.8 billion. American Express (AXP) and Capital One (COF) lead the pack with 7.2% and 6.0% increases, respectively.