It is likely American Express will continue to lose U.S. marketshare to Visa (VS) and MasterCard (MC) in the first quarter, with MC doing the most damage, according to forecaster RAM Research. The AmEx erosion will continue throughout 2015 and will be impacted in the second quarter of 2016 when AmEx ends the Costco card, which accounts for 10% of AmEx Cards-in-Force (CIF).
American Express continues to lose U.S. marketshare to Visa (VS) and MasterCard (MC) in the fourth quarter, with MC doing the most damage gaining 80 basis points (bps). Discover continues to maintain its 2.5% marketshare in U.S. Gross Dollar Volume (GDV).
Visa is expected to gain another 10 basis points (bps) in marketshare in the fourth quarter. At the end of Q3/14, VS remained the U.S. giant with a 58.9% market share, compared to 26.1% for MC, 13.3% for AX and 2.5% for DS, according to CardData.
Visa gained more U.S. market share in the third quarter than the other three networks, capturing 58.1% of the Gross Dollar Volume (GDV), compared to 57.9% one-year ago. The growth came at the expense of MasterCard who declined from 26.4% in Q3/13 to 26.1% in Q3/14.
CardWeb.com’s CardData financial database projects the four major networks will report $1948 million in international Purchase Dollar Volume (PDV) for the third quarter, a 6.9% year-on-year gain. American Express will report Q3 on Oct 15 and MasterCard will report on Oct 30. It is expected Discover will report Q3 on Oct 22 and Visa on Oct 24.
MasterCard takes the lead in the second quarter for International gross dollar volume with a 12.3% year-on-year gain, compared to Visa’s 3.7%, American Express’ 6.3% gain and Discover with no gain.
At mid-year, Visa remains the U.S. giant with a 57.9% market share, compared to 26.2% for MasterCard, 13.4% for American Express and 2.5% for Discover, according to CardData.
MasterCard led the four networks in year-on-year gains in market share for cards-in-force for the U.S. in the second quarter, gaining 60 basis points, while Visa declined 40 basis points; American Express remained flat; and Discover declined 20 basis points.
Discover leads the charge in the year-on-year growth of cash dollar volume gains, rising more than 14% in the second quarter. Americans are now making approximately $820 billion in annual payment card cash transactions through the four U.S. networks.
MasterCard takes the lead in the second quarter for U.S. gross dollar volume with a 9.2% year-on-year gain, compared to Visa’s 9.1%, American Express’ 6.0% gain and Discover 6.0% gain. Based on U.S. GDV, VS and MC tied the four networks in Y/Y gains in market share for the U.S., gaining 10 basis points (bps) Y/Y. AX was flat Y/Y and DS decreased by 10 bps.
The four top U.S. payment card networks broke above the $1 trillion purchase dollar volume milestone again in the second quarter. MasterCard led the charge growing 10.1% in U.S. purchase dollar volume to $289 billion.
While Visa Inc. (VS) generally spends more than 50% in marketing than MasterCard, Inc. (MC) historically, the figure is extremely skewed by the absence of creditable figures from Visa Europe. However, during the fourth quarter MC way outspent VS to the tune of $321 million, compared to the VS figure of $186 million.