The 30+ day delinquency rate (not seasonally adjusted) for the top 100 U.S. banks increased 16 basis points (bps) sequentially, but down 7 bps from one-year ago. Among the nation’s top four card issuers, delinquency edged up by 15 bps from the prior quarter, but dropped year-on-year (YOY) by eight bps.
The charge-off ratio for the top 100 U.S bank credit cards has been slowing edging upward, rising 10 basis points (bps) in the fourth quarter and 1 bps in the first quarter. RAM Research projects charge-offs will rise to 3.02% for the second quarter.
Average losses in the first-quarter 2015 for the top six issuers were 213 basis points (bps) below their 2010-2014 averages and now at an unsustainable level over the long term. Analysts are saying the industry may be approaching the inflection point in credit performance.
The average U.S. 90+ day delinquency rate among the nation’s four largest issuers declined 4 basis points (bps) sequentially, to a record low of 1.01% for the first quarter, compared to 1.05% in the prior quarter and 1.10% one-year ago.
The average charge-off ratio among the nation’s four largest issuers increased 12 basis points (bps) quarter-to-quarter (QOQ) to 3.09% in the first quarter (Q1/15). The top 100 U.S. banks posted a 10 bps increase QOQ to 3.07%, according to CardData.
The average U.S. 90+ day delinquency rate among the nation’s four largest issuers declined 12 basis points (bps) to 1.04% during 2014. The top 100 U.S. banks also posted a 13 bps decline last year to 1.08%.
The average U.S. 30+ day delinquency rate among the nation’s four largest issuers declined 25 basis points (bps) to 2.07% during 2014. The top 100 U.S. banks also posted a 25 bps decline last year to 2.16%.
The decline in the U.S. bank credit card delinquency ratio will likely remain flat in the fourth quarter and then reverse course for all of 2015. On a weighted basis 30+ day delinquency will should come in around 2.29%, while the unweighted ratio should edge up slightly to 2.17% for the fourth quarter.
Bank credit card delinquency among the Top 100 U.S. banks continue to decline in the third quarter to 2.16%. The ratio is the lowest in more than 25 years, down 26 basis points (bps) from one year ago, down 65 bps from two years ago and down a stunning 447 bps from five years ago.
The top four U.S. Visa and MasterCard issuers are seeing a credit quality reversal as delinquency rates headed higher in the third quarter. Chase, Capital One and Citibank all reported upticks in the 30+ day delinquency rate, while Bank of America held steady.
Seeing a product in a store, then buying it online from another retailer using a smartphone – dropped from 37% in the US last year to 28% in 2014. But “webrooming,” in which consumers buy in a store after researching a purchase online using a smartphone, was reported by an even higher proportion of respondents, 41%.
While credit card charge-offs among the top U.S. issuers have fallen to seven year lows in 2013, there are some scattered clouds on the horizon as early stage delinquency (30+ days) headed north in the second half of 2013 by six basis points. However, late stage delinquency (90+ days) was down three basis points from 2Q/2013 but up three basis points sequentially in Q4/2013. Historically, delinquency rates are slightly depressed in the fourth quarter due to the higher level of outstandings, driven by holiday spending.